We study nonstationary newsvendor problems under nonparametric demand models and general distributional measures of nonstationarity, addressing the practical challenges of unknown degree of nonstationarity and demand censoring. We propose a novel distributional-detection-and-restart framework for learning in nonstationary environments, and instantiate it through two efficient algorithms for the uncensored and censored demand settings. The algorithms are fully adaptive, requiring no prior knowledge of the degree and type of nonstationarity, and offer a flexible yet powerful approach to handling both abrupt and gradual changes in nonstationary environments. We establish a comprehensive optimality theory for our algorithms by deriving matching regret upper and lower bounds under both general and refined structural conditions with nontrivial proof techniques that are of independent interest. Numerical experiments using real-world datasets, including nurse staffing data for emergency departments and COVID-19 test demand data, showcase the algorithms' superior and robust empirical performance. While motivated by the newsvendor problem, the distributional-detection-and-restart framework applies broadly to a wide class of nonstationary stochastic optimization problems. Managerially, our framework provides a practical, easy-to-deploy, and theoretically grounded solution for decision-making under nonstationarity.

We address the problem of policy selection in contextual stochastic optimization (CSO), where covariates are available as contextual information and decisions must satisfy hard feasibility constraints. In many CSO settings, multiple candidate policies--arising from different modeling paradigms--exhibit heterogeneous performance across the covariate space, with no single policy uniformly dominating. We propose Prescribe-then-Select (PS), a modular framework that first constructs a library of feasible candidate policies and then learns a meta-policy to select the best policy for the observed covariates. We implement the meta-policy using ensembles of Optimal Policy Trees trained via cross-validation on the training set, making policy choice entirely data-driven. Across two benchmark CSO problems--single-stage newsvendor and two-stage shipment planning--PS consistently outperforms the best single policy in heterogeneous regimes of the covariate space and converges to the dominant policy when such heterogeneity is absent. All the code to reproduce the results can be found at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/Prescribe-then-Select-TMLR.

Recent advances in mathematical reasoning and the long-term planning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) have precipitated the development of agents, which are being increasingly leveraged in business operations processes. Decision models to optimize inventory levels are one of the core elements of operations management. However, the capabilities of the LLM agent in making inventory decisions in uncertain contexts, as well as the decision-making biases (e.g. framing effect, etc.) of the agent, remain largely unexplored. This prompts concerns regarding the capacity of LLM agents to effectively address real-world problems, as well as the potential implications of biases that may be present. To address this gap, we introduce AIM-Bench, a novel benchmark designed to assess the decision-making behaviour of LLM agents in uncertain supply chain management scenarios through a diverse series of inventory replenishment experiments. Our results reveal that different LLMs typically exhibit varying degrees of decision bias that are similar to those observed in human beings. In addition, we explored strategies to mitigate the pull-to-centre effect and the bullwhip effect, namely cognitive reflection and implementation of information sharing. These findings underscore the need for careful consideration of the potential biases in deploying LLMs in Inventory decision-making scenarios. We hope that these insights will pave the way for mitigating human decision bias and developing human-centred decision support systems for supply chains.

In optimization under uncertainty, the desirability of a decision (e.g., inventory) depends on an

In China's competitive fresh e-commerce market, optimizing operational strategies, especially inventory management in front-end warehouses, is key to enhance customer satisfaction and to gain a competitive edge. Front-end warehouses are placed in residential areas to ensure the timely delivery of fresh goods and are usually in small size. This brings the challenge of deciding which goods to stock and in what quantities, taking into account capacity constraints. To address this issue, traditional predict-then-optimize (PTO) methods that predict sales and then decide on inventory often don't align prediction with inventory goals, as well as fail to prioritize consumer satisfaction. This paper proposes a multi-task Optimize-then-Predict-then-Optimize (OTPTO) approach that jointly optimizes product selection and inventory management, aiming to increase consumer satisfaction by maximizing the full order fulfillment rate. Our method employs a 0-1 mixed integer programming model OM1 to determine historically optimal inventory levels, and then uses a product selection model PM1 and the stocking model PM2 for prediction. The combined results are further refined through a post-processing algorithm OM2. Experimental results from JD.com's 7Fresh platform demonstrate the robustness and significant advantages of our OTPTO method. Compared to the PTO approach, our OTPTO method substantially enhances the full order fulfillment rate by 4.34% (a relative increase of 7.05%) and narrows the gap to the optimal full order fulfillment rate by 5.27%. These findings substantiate the efficacy of the OTPTO method in managing inventory at front-end warehouses of fresh e-commerce platforms and provide valuable insights for future research in this domain.

End-to-end learning has become a widely applicable and studied problem in training predictive ML models to be aware of their impact on downstream decision-making tasks. These end-to-end models often outperform traditional methods that separate training from the optimization and only myopically focus on prediction error. However, the computational complexity of end-to-end frameworks poses a significant challenge, particularly for large-scale problems. While training an ML model using gradient descent, each time we need to compute a gradient we must solve an expensive optimization problem. We present a meta-optimization method that learns efficient algorithms to approximate optimization problems, dramatically reducing computational overhead of solving the decision problem in general, an aspect we leverage in the training within the end-to-end framework. Our approach introduces a neural network architecture that near-optimally solves optimization problems while ensuring feasibility constraints through alternate projections. We prove exponential convergence, approximation guarantees, and generalization bounds for our learning method. This method offers superior computational efficiency, producing high-quality approximations faster and scaling better with problem size compared to existing techniques. Our approach applies to a wide range of optimization problems including deterministic, single-stage as well as two-stage stochastic optimization problems. We illustrate how our proposed method applies to (1) an electricity generation problem using real data from an electricity routing company coordinating the movement of electricity throughout 13 states, (2) a shortest path problem with a computer vision task of predicting edge costs from terrain maps, (3) a two-stage multi-warehouse cross-fulfillment newsvendor problem, as well as a variety of other newsvendor-like problems.

Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) is a popular framework for decision-making under uncertainty, but its adversarial nature can lead to overly conservative solutions. To address this, we study ex-ante Distributionally Robust Regret Optimization (DRRO), focusing on Wasserstein-based ambiguity sets which are popular due to their links to regularization and machine learning. We provide a systematic analysis of Wasserstein DRRO, paralleling known results for Wasserstein DRO. Under smoothness and regularity conditions, we show that Wasserstein DRRO coincides with Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) up to first-order terms, and exactly so in convex quadratic settings. We revisit the Wasserstein DRRO newsvendor problem, where the loss is the maximum of two linear functions of demand and decision. Extending [25], we show that the regret can be computed by maximizing two one-dimensional concave functions. For more general loss functions involving the maximum of multiple linear terms in multivariate random variables and decision vectors, we prove that computing the regret and thus also the DRRO policy is NP-hard. We then propose a convex relaxation for these more general Wasserstein DRRO problems and demonstrate its strong empirical performance. Finally, we provide an upper bound on the optimality gap of our relaxation and show it improves over recent alternatives.

In this paper, we investigate the performance of Thompson Sampling (TS) for online learning with censored feedback, focusing primarily on the classic repeated newsvendor model--a foundational framework in inventory management--and demonstrating how our techniques can be naturally extended to a broader class of problems. We model demand using a Weibull distribution and initialize TS with a Gamma prior to dynamically adjust order quantities. Our analysis establishes optimal (up to logarithmic factors) frequentist regret bounds for TS without imposing restrictive prior assumptions. More importantly, it yields novel and highly interpretable insights on how TS addresses the exploration-exploitation trade-off in the repeated newsvendor setting. Specifically, our results show that when past order quantities are sufficiently large to overcome censoring, TS accurately estimates the unknown demand parameters, leading to near-optimal ordering decisions. Conversely, when past orders are relatively small, TS automatically increases future order quantities to gather additional demand information. Extensive numerical simulations further demonstrate that TS outperforms more conservative and widely-used approaches such as online convex optimization, upper confidence bounds, and myopic Bayesian dynamic programming. This study also lays the foundation for exploring general online learning problems with censored feedback.

We study a censored variant of the data-driven newsvendor problem, where the decision-maker must select an ordering quantity that minimizes expected overage and underage costs based only on offline censored sales data, rather than historical demand realizations. Our goal is to understand how the degree of historical demand censoring affects the performance of any learning algorithm for this problem. To isolate this impact, we adopt a distributionally robust optimization framework, evaluating policies according to their worst-case regret over an ambiguity set of distributions. This set is defined by the largest historical order quantity (the observable boundary of the dataset), and contains all distributions matching the true demand distribution up to this boundary, while allowing them to be arbitrary afterwards. We demonstrate a spectrum of achievability under demand censoring by deriving a natural necessary and sufficient condition under which vanishing regret is an achievable goal. In regimes in which it is not, we exactly characterize the information loss due to censoring: an insurmountable lower bound on the performance of any policy, even when the decision-maker has access to infinitely many demand samples. We then leverage these sharp characterizations to propose a natural robust algorithm that adapts to the historical level of demand censoring. We derive finite-sample guarantees for this algorithm across all possible censoring regimes and show its near-optimality with matching lower bounds (up to polylogarithmic factors). We moreover demonstrate its robust performance via extensive numerical experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets.

In many data-driven decision-making problems, performance guarantees often depend heavily on the correctness of model assumptions, which may frequently fail in practice. We address this issue in the context of a feature-based newsvendor problem, where demand is influenced by observed features such as demographics and seasonality. To mitigate the impact of model misspecification, we propose a model-free and distribution-free framework inspired by conformal prediction. Our approach consists of two phases: a training phase, which can utilize any type of prediction method, and a calibration phase that conformalizes the model bias. To enhance predictive performance, we explore the balance between data quality and quantity, recognizing the inherent trade-off: more selective training data improves quality but reduces quantity. Importantly, we provide statistical guarantees for the conformalized critical quantile, independent of the correctness of the underlying model. Moreover, we quantify the confidence interval of the critical quantile, with its width decreasing as data quality and quantity improve. We validate our framework using both simulated data and a real-world dataset from the Capital Bikeshare program in Washington, D.C. Across these experiments, our proposed method consistently outperforms benchmark algorithms, reducing newsvendor loss by up to 40% on the simulated data and 25% on the real-world dataset.